As Prime Minister Theresa May braces to deliver her speech on Brexit in Florence on Friday, a leak to the BBC makes reference to an initial offer by the UK government to Brussels.

No. 10 Downing Street is apparently willing to offer a financial settlement to Brussels to the tune of €20bn. That sum does not include long-term liabilities, like EU pensions and debts.

That is the first time that London talks numbers, going over and beyond the principle of paying for access to the Single Market. That sum is seen by the UK government as a “generous” offer that comes with strings attached. The money will only be given out if Brussels agrees to a two-year transitional deal in very “bespoke” terms.

This envisaged transition will give the UK access to the Single Market in status quo terms, whilst remaining in some form of a Customs’ Union. In time, this will pave the way for  an equally “bespoke” trade deal.

From March 2019, the UK expects to have the right to conclude its own trade deals, end freedom of movement, and end European Court of Justice Jurisdiction. That is an unmatched deal, from Turkey to Iceland. The UK seeks a deal that is more that CEFTA (with Canada) and less than the European Economic Area.

Whether that objective is feasible will become apparent during the fourth round of Brexit negotiations in Brussels that kicks off on September 25, in Brussels.