I see no Brexit.
Indeed, once the bloc unanimously granted an extension for Brexit requested, both pundits and politicians feel relieved as the have perceptualised the trap that they had fallen in with the self-inflicted blunder that they committed three and half years ago. It was one of the biggest mistakes ever made in the history of the British Empire. Now they are trying to find ways to stay in the bloc, while at the same time maintaining as much of their dignity as they can.
The extension will give them the opportunity to manipulate the situation in such a way so to revoke the March 29, 2017 letter from former Prime Minister Theresa May to Donald Tusk stating the United Kingdom’s wish to withdraw from the EU on the grounds of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. In this case, the UK, which until the day of Brexit is a full member of the European Union, will remain in the bloc as if nothing had happened.
As many things have occurred in the two years that have passed since May’s letter, everybody in Brussels and the major member states have, instead of working on how to sustain the European project and to mitigate the politically dangerous rise of extreme movements on both sides of the political spectrum, lost time trying to invent solutions to minimise the damage Brexit would cause to the United Kingdom.
Looking at the wider picture, sometimes one cannot exclude a conspiracy scenario, the more so in that in the UK several centres of power – including the Foreign Office, MI5 and MI6 intelligence services, the Crown, Russell Group think tanks, and many others – thrive on conspiracies.
That hypothesis cannot be excluded when thinking that the British may have jointly, with their Eurosceptic friends overseas, planned Brexit to drive the EU into deep decay if not dismemberment. Only when they recently realised that it did not work did they come to the decision to remain in order to continue damaging the bloc from within.
Is it a conspiracy theory? Yes, but it cannot be ruled out. When dealing with the UK, one must know that all cards in the deck to play the game.
With elections in the UK agreed and the extension date for the Brexit accorded by the European Council, there are more probabilities for the UK to stay in the European Union than to leave. Assuming, therefore, that Britain will remain in the Bloc, it remains to be seen exactly how the EU will react.
We presume that Brussels will react intelligently because the European Union, after the retirement of Angela Merkel, has run out of politicians and the big member states are ruled by medium calibre leaders and technocrats who have a narrow view of politics and regularly put on display their linear thinking and primitive Cartesian logic. This is not good.
The potential comeback of the United Kingdom is a political act and it implies sophisticated political handling. The EU cannot refuse the withdrawal of the letter that originally announced Brexit, but it can suspend partially the UK’s membership, as it did with Austria, when the late Jörg Haider was elected Chancellor in 2000.
How legitimate would that be? It will be perfectly valid if France and Germany claim it is. The suspension may last for as long as Brussels needs in order to stabilise and reorganise in order to face any new dangers that may surface from the bottom-up changes that are occurring in an increasing number of the member states.
In this context, which is the bottom line, regardless of how the UK is welcomed back into the bloc, it must meticulously stay out from the EU’s foreign, defence, and euro policies and stand in the queue, after Croatia, to get high ranking positions in the EU institutions.
As for the various privileges obtained by timely and intelligent blackmails that were sent to Brussels, such as the notorious reduction of the UK’s contributions to the European Union budget that have been in effect since 1985, they must at least be forgotten.