While Spain’s Socialists are still leading polls, the primary winner of the November 10 elections is projected to be the far-right according to a survey by 40Db for El Pais published on Sunday.
The Socialists are expected to win 121 seats, down from the 123 secured in April. The far-right Vox is expected to see its influence nearly double, from 24 in April to 46 in November. Meanwhile, the People’s Party is also gaining ground and is projected to secure 91 seats, up from 66 in April. The most significant losses are likely to be sustained by centre-right Ciudadanos, who stand to lose 14 seats.
Elections in April resulted in a stalemate.
The conservative PP has said they are open to an alliance with both Ciudadanos and Vox to form a majority in the 350-seat parliament. The Socialists would not form an alliance with either PP or Vox but are open to negotiations with both Podemos and Ciudadanos.
The latest poll suggests that Socialists will again, like in April, but with fewer seats.
The conservative Popular Party (PP), led by Pablo Casado, saw its worst-ever result in April. The surge of Vox has forced Casado to focus on appealing to centre-right voters. By the same token, as Unidos Podemos are holding their ground, Sanchez is shifting his attention to the centre-right, targeting Ciudadanos voters.
The incumbent prime minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), the leader of the opposition Pablo Casado (PP), as well as Albert Rivera (Ciudadanos), Pablo Iglesias (Unidas Podemos) and Santiago Abascal (Vox) will take part in a debate on Monday, which could be decisive for the campaign.