Reality check: Trump could be the next U.S. President

EPA/RYAN STONE

Republican 2016 US presidential candidate businessman Donald Trump (R) speaks, after being introduced by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (L) at a Super Tuesday campaign event in Palm Beach, Florida, USA, 01 March 2016. The Florida presidential primary is 15 March 2016.

Abraham Lincoln’s party could become Donald Trump’s party


Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on Google+
Share on LinkedIn
+

Trump won Super Tuesday and in reality he has no competition. He is likely to secure the Republican nomination and has a good chance of succeeding Barak Obama as the President of the United States.

Fractured nomination race

Allowing for no less than ten candidates to enter and stay on the race, meant there would be no policy debate. The Republican race was not about what people stood for, but very quickly became a beauty contest with people wanting to “stand out.” In this race, Trump had no match.

This is the man who asked CNN for $5 million to participate in a debate; the man who called for the building of a great wall along the borders with Mexico in June 2015; who called for a ban on Muslim immigration (even tourism) to the United States; who takes pride in comparing himself to FDR who placed Japanese-Americans in camps during the Second World War. This is the man who said Hillary Clinton “got schlonged” by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race (“Schlong” is a Yiddish for penis). This is the man the former President of Mexico compares to Hitler and the former Republican Presidential nominee, Senator McCain calls “a jackass.” This man has now a very good chance of becoming the President of the United States.

Trump is nearing nomination

The battle was not about delegates alone. Trump won Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, and Vermont. The final count is 285 delegates for Trump, 161 for Cruz, and 87 for Rubio. In sum, Mr. Trump could win the sum of his opponents.

He lost Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska, and Minnesota, but to two candidates. The Republican mainstream was waiting for Rubio to emerge a second, win Ted Cruz, to consolidate its support behind a single challenger to Trump. That did not happen either. It is Ted Cruz that took Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, leaving Marco Rubio with Minnesota, that is, his first state in this race.

Trump is winning the math race, the political race, the endorsement race, the political race, and the media race. Republicans and the rest of the world may just awake to Trump being the Republican nominee and thus potentially the President of the United States.

Trump is running for President

On Tuesday, Trump no longer looked like Nigel Farage playing the game of “the great divide”; he called himself a unifier. Of course, the memory of Front National founder Jean-Marie Lepen endorsement, the Ku Klux Klan endorsement, his retweet of Benito Mussolini, and his comparison with Hitler by the former President of Mexico just happened over the weekend. Trump is a lot of things, but a unifier he is not.

On Monday evening, Trump promised to be “greedy for America,” championing economic and military prowess. This is in the overall context of “making America great again,” which paradoxically questions its great power status and speaks of a less-than-super power status. That is of course music to the ears of one of the few admirers of Trump abroad, that is, President Putin; the feeling is mutual as Trump called President Putin “a bright and talented person.”

So, what if

“What if” is not a fact-driven question. But, here is a guide of what might happen if the world takes seriously what the likely Republican nominee says he will do, if he wins.

With Europe, relations would have to be rethought. Trump is on the record asking “where is Germany?”  Trump would withdraw troops from Europe and make European allies pay more for NATO. He is also the man who called Brussels “a hellhole.” As for the “special relationship” with Britain: in January, the House of Commons debated on whether he should be barred from entering the U.K, and he threatened to take his money and go (has over a $1,5 bn investment in Scotland). His call for a ban on Muslim immigration has been called “stupid” by Prime Minister Cameron.

Trump will bomb Iraq and welcomes Russian help in Syria. He will maintain Guantanamo bay and add more prisoners. He will severe trade relations with China and raise tariffs. He would also foot the bill for the military protection of South Korea to Seoul. He is both 100% pro-Israel, but also neutral on the Palestinian issue.

Little more than a week ago, President Barack Obama said he trusted the American people who knew that the job of the President was “serious” and would not vote for Donald Trump.

(Fox, CNN, BBC, Guardian)

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on Google+
Share on LinkedIn
+