Marine Le Pen is likely to lose the French Presidential election of this Sunday. Likely, not highly likely. Yet this is not the best-case scenario.
Le Pen is likely to lose because the interests backing Emanuel Macron to maintain the French status quo are very strong and are the same interests that want the European Union to stay one piece.
The European Union will remain for a long time united because the interests which want it united are stronger, much stronger, than the interests that want it to dismember. It is as simple as that.
Le Pen, at the present circumstances, if wins the election, this election, is likely to bring the moderate change society needs as a minimum minimorum to the direction of making Europe better and the big powers dominating Europe, can tolerate. If Le Pen will be elected, she will keep France in the European Union and in the Euro but certainly will impose changes giving back to France the political role it had before and to Germany the realistic role it should have as a major Member State, not more, not less.
Under the circumstances, the most substantial statement Le Pen made in the second pre-election debate, which was taken as a witty remark but wasn’t, was that after this election, France will be ruled by a woman, either her or Angela Merkel.
However, the big interests which will determine the French election outcome, are rather short-sighted and Marine Le Pen is likely to lose. This time.
In the meanwhile, everyday life of people in France and in Europe, will deteriorate and life for Europeans will gradually become more difficult. Yet, bottom line, the change is unavoidable. As we did not react when austerity and restrictions begun, if we do not change now, we may enter into unchartered waters. It is like the frog hot water experiment. If a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.
Marine Le Pen may lose now but it is highly likely to win the next election. In this case however, thinks are likely to be different and Frexit may well be the first item on the agenda.
Big interests are very well organized and still are pretty much in control of Europe. Today. The question is for how long the present status quo will be maintained and what will be the cost of bottom-up triggered change.
Keep in mind, last year we met with two black swan cases, which except us, nobody had predicted. Brexit and the election of Donald Trump.