The ‘Magnitsky Act’ model for Nazarbayev, likely to lead to a Qadaffi-type free-fall

The ‘Magnitsky Act’ model for Nazarbayev, likely to lead to a Qadaffi-type free-fall


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Brussels is increasingly populated by Kazakh dissidents and opposition members, who are working to pass in the European parliament, a Resolution about the Zhanaozen killings of last December.

In this context, a growing number of Members of the European Parliament and officials in EU Institutions are expressing their determination to introduce a freezing of assets and visa refusal for the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbajev, members of his family and a number of close associates.

According to Brussels sources, certain key personalities of the inner circle of the President, in an effort to save their “heads,” have provided evidence that the order to shoot unarmed striking demonstrators of the state company OzenMunaiGaz in the city of Zhanaozen on 16 December last year, were given by the President himself.

Indeed, it seems that the demonstration was spreading as nobody wanted to take the responsibility for such an order. The request for armed intervention was moving from the bottom all the way up, until it reached the President who finally ordered the use of blind shooting against the strikers. According to survivors of the Zhanaozen demonstrations, which turned into a real massacre, the number of peaceful demonstrators killed by the police Kalashnikovs amounted approximately to 800 while the Prosecutor General of Kazakhstan stated that only 14 were killed and 64 were wounded.

The European Parliament’s upcoming resolution on the Zhanaozen massacre is likely to signify the beginning of the end of the Nazarbayev regime, which depending on how Nazarbayev himself and his close entourage will manage the crisis, may end-up smoothly or violently, along the lines of the Qadaffi end.

The big issue for Nazarbayev is that he is rapidly losing his supporters abroad. It is worth noting that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to support him, according to sources close to Kremlin, as he looks for international legitimacy. Indeed, same sources noted, that Putin himself despite the serious demonstrations he is facing every day, never ordered the use of bullets.

One supporter, albeit a paid one, is former UK Premier, Tony Blair, a ‘presidential advisor’ since 2011. Two months after the shootings, Blair appeared in a promotional video for the nation and its president. “It’s a country almost unique, I would say, in its cultural diversity and the way it brings different faiths together and cultures together,” Blair said in the film. In return for selling his reputation and legacy, Blair is reportedly paid $13 million.

The fall of the Nazarbayev regime in Kazakhstan, despite being expected by westerners and especially the USA, if it happens under conditions of generalized social disorder, is likely to bring into power the Islamic opposition. This is something that the EU, the USA and NATO are observing with great concern, however, it is an issue that primarily the Russians have to deal with as Kazakhstan falls under their dominion and in any case, the Baykanur base (with its nuclear missile launching facilities) is under total Russian control.

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