Ireland will exceed the projected budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP for 2019, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said on Tuesday.
The key is the corporate tax intake that doubled since 2012, reaching €10.4bn in 2018 and projected to peak at €11bn by the end of 2019. By the end of November, the corporate tax intake was in the region of €10bn.
Furthermore, this year’s expenditure was 1.4% below the government’s forecast contributing to a budget surplus of €3.35bn. Ireland expects to achieve surpluses of at least 1% of GDP by 2022.
The structural challenge for Ireland is that the budget is overly reliant on corporate tax. That is expected to decline as the global model of corporate taxation for digital companies shifts from taxing profits to taxing user-based turnover.