If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without a deal, the Netherlands could lose €700 million in food safety services and €1.6 billion in higher EU contributions, neither of which include either import and export duties.
According to an audit report commissioned by the Dutch government, €2.3 billion would be the overall cost of a hard Brexit for the taxpayer in the first year, 2019-2020, which would then rise to €2.5 billion-€3 billion a year until 2026.
Since 2016, net contributors to the EU budget, including Germany and the Netherlands, have known that Brexit will create a budget deficit they will need to cover. A part of this deficit will be covered by a so-called “divorce bill,” which will only be paid if the UK signs a Withdrawal Agreement and secures a transitional period.
In 2017, a German newspaper estimated that Germany would need to increase its contributions to the EU budget by 16%, or €3.8 billion out of a total overall cost of €10.2 billion.
The lack of certainty surrounding Brexit is also a source of investment and income. Demand for business office space from UK-based companies in the Netherlands has trebled since 2016, with most of the demand coming from small financial companies in Amsterdam.