Within a decade, a hard Brexit will cost Ireland 40,000 jobs and 3% in growth.
That is the projection of Gabriel Fagan, the chief economist of the Irish Central Bank, who was testifying on Thursday at the Irish Upper House of Parliament (Senad). In his view, a hard Brexit will have a prolonged negative effect on Irish growth, both in the short and the longer term.
In the worst case scenario of either London or Brussels walking away from a free trade deal, Ireland stands to suffer much more, particularly in the financial services sector.
However, Mr. Fagan also acknowledged Brexit was also an opportunity for Ireland, expecting Foreign Direct Investment flows to divert from the UK to Ireland in a number of sectors, creating thousands of jobs, including banking and real estate.