On Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee convenes to decide on US interest rates. The market is already certain that the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day December policy discussion with a discussion of “how much” rather than “if” to raise interest rates, for the first time since 2006.

There is little doubt that the raise will be timid, not more than 25 to 50 basis points. The US is running against the tide in Japan, Europe, and China that are stepping up quantitative easing. In add...

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