The second quarter of 2019 saw China’s slowest growth rate since 1990.
In the three months to June, the Chinese economy grew by 6.2%, year on year, largely in line with official forecasts. Industrial growth continued surged by 6,3%, while retail jumped by 9,8%.
Continued growth is largely driven by public-investment, significant tax cuts and the reduction of capital buffers required from Chinese lenders. This cumulative stimulus package appears to be working, even amid a major Sino-American trade war and declining exports.
However, according to China’s statistical service bureau, the economy is facing downward pressure in the second half of 2019. Market analysts project a slowdown in the range of 6-6,1% for 2019, down from an official target of 6,5%.
Slowing growth in the second biggest economy in the world is raising concerns over a potential spill-over to the global economy. It is now widely speculated that the Chinese government will unleash further stimulus measures.
Putting China’s slower economic growth into perspective, UBS China chief economist Wang Tao told Germany’s public broadcaster DW that growth remains in line with expectation, which is satisfactory given the external shock, triggered by the Sino-American trade war. Given China’s $13-trillion economy, 6.2% growth still contributes a third to global growth.