Inés Arrimadas’ Ciutadans is expected to win the Catalan elections on 21 December 21 while the three independence forces could retain an absolute majority in seats of the Catalan Parliament, according to the La Vanguardia exit poll survey.
Vote turnout is set at a record of 84% at the time the ballots closed at 21:00. The formation of Inés Arrimadas would be imposed in votes and seats, collecting more than one in four votes cast (26%) and moving from the 25 representatives of two years ago to a range of 34-37 seats.
But this would not provide a clear political solution for Catalonia, as Arrimadas triumph will not guarantee a clean victory. The independence bloc formed by ERC of Oriol Junqueras, Junts per Catalunya of Carles Puigdemont and the CUP could retain the absolute majority of the Catalan Chamber, as the exit poll gives the three parties a total of 67-71 seats. The majority needed is at 68 members of parliament.
Then, it will be the first independence force of the hemicycle would become the ERC with a 22.5% of votes for a total of 34-36 seats. Puigdemont’s JxCat is expected to win between 28 and 29 seats thanks and 19% of the votes. In the case of the CUP, it would lose close to half of its representatives in the last legislature, from ten to 5 to 6 seats after retaining 5% of the votes.