Banks appear not to be leaving London, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Wednesday.
According to an FT poll of the 15 biggest international banks in London, the financial industry may be losing no more than 6% of the City’s jobs as result of Brexit.
That corresponds to 4,600 jobs.
Deutsche Bank projects that only 350 jobs may have to go by April 2019; the initial estimate was 4,000 jobs. JB Morgan is considering moving 700 jobs, down from an original estimate of 4,000. Goldman Sachs will move approximately 500 jobs and HSBC no more than 1000. For banks such as BNB Paribas, it is too soon to speculate on numbers.
Many banks expect they will be able to keep most high value jobs in London, such as risk analysis and valuations. They expect to have more client facing roles in EU member states but retain the most significant part of their value chain in London.
However, Brexit can still go wrong if the UK is unable to guarantee access to the Single Market for its financial services. Currently, most banks are moving regulatory consultant jobs in Europe. If the UK is forced to move bigger parts of their operations, the next wave of jobs leaving the UK will be bigger, as valuations, risk analysis, sales, and many others would move.